Everything you need to know before getting started.
Getting Started
What is POLYALPHA BOT™?
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POLYALPHA BOT™ is an autonomous AI trading bot that operates on Polymarket — the world's largest prediction market platform. It runs 4 strategies simultaneously on your wallet. Three of the four scan all markets — politics, sports, crypto, economics — not just BTC:
📡 BTC Down — contrarian CLOB signal on Polymarket BTC 5-min markets. When the crowd panic-buys Down (imbalance ≥ 10), the bot bets UP — backtested 92.9% WR. When imbalance < 10, bets DOWN (77.8% WR). Confirmed by 1h BTC macro trend.
♾️ Sum Arbitrage — scans all 1,000+ Polymarket markets for YES+NO < 1.0 gaps. Market-agnostic guaranteed profit, any category.
⏱️ Near-Expiry — monitors all binary markets expiring in <10 minutes with one side ≥ 85%. Any market, any category.
🧬 Copy Alpha — mirrors the trades of top-performing Polymarket wallets in real time. Any market they enter, you enter.
Do I need to know how to code or trade to use it?
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No. The onboarding is fully automated — you fill a form with your Polymarket credentials, and the bot is deployed on a dedicated server within 2 minutes. No coding, no terminal, no manual setup. Your private dashboard URL and login are sent to you via Telegram once the bot is running.
What is Polymarket and do I need an account?
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Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform where you bet on real-world events using USDC (a dollar-pegged stablecoin on Polygon blockchain). Yes, you need a Polymarket account with a funded wallet. Creating one is free and takes about 5 minutes at polymarket.com. You'll need a crypto wallet (MetaMask or similar) and USDC on Polygon to start.
How much capital do I need to start?
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The minimum recommended capital is $100 USDC. Most users start with $100–$500 to validate, then scale up.
📡 BTC Down · ♾️ Sum Arb · ⏱️ Near-Expiry — these 3 strategies use automatic Kelly capped sizing. Position size is calculated per-trade based on edge strength, capped at 6% of capital. You cannot configure it manually — the algorithm manages it.
🧬 Copy Alpha — this is the only strategy where capital allocation is configurable. You can set a maximum USDC amount per copied trade and choose which wallets to follow. More capital allows mirroring larger trades from top wallets proportionally.
Security & Custody
Do you have access to my funds or private key?
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No — never. Your private key and API credentials are stored exclusively in a .env file on your own dedicated server with owner-only read permissions (chmod 600). We never see, store, or transmit your credentials. Your USDC stays in your on-chain wallet at all times — we only interact with Polymarket's trading API to place orders.
What permissions does the API key need? Can it withdraw my funds?
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When generating your Polymarket API key, only grant "Trading" permissions. This allows the bot to place and cancel orders — nothing else. The API key cannot withdraw funds, transfer tokens, or modify your account settings. Even if your API key were compromised, your USDC on-chain would be safe.
What happens if the server goes down?
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The bot runs on a dedicated VPS with systemd auto-restart — if the process crashes it restarts within 30 seconds automatically. Open positions on Polymarket are settled by the platform regardless of whether your bot is running, so you won't lose resolved trades. You'll receive a Telegram alert if the bot goes offline for an extended period.
Strategy & Performance
How does the bot decide when to trade?
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Each strategy runs independently with its own scan cadence and logic:
📡 BTC Down — uses a contrarian CLOB signal on Polymarket BTC 5-minute markets. Computes Down_buy / Down_sell ratio from live trade flow. Imbalance ≥ 10 = crowd panic-buying Down → bot bets UP (92.9% WR backtested on 50 markets). Imbalance < 10 → bets DOWN (77.8% WR). Both edges confirmed by 1h BTC macro trend. Asia/EU session only (00–16h UTC). BTC markets only.
♾️ Sum Arb — scans all 1,000+ open Polymarket markets (crypto, politics, sports, economics) for YES+NO < 1.0. No directional prediction — profit is mathematical. Runs every tick, any market.
⏱️ Near-Expiry — monitors all binary Polymarket markets expiring in <10 minutes with one side ≥ 85%. Not BTC-specific. Polls every 30 seconds.
🧬 Copy Alpha — polls every 60 seconds for new trades from followed top wallets. Mirrors any trade they place — any market, any category. Filters by volume ($50K+) and price drift (<2%).
What is "edge" and why does it matter?
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Edge = the difference between our model's probability estimate and the market price. The bigger the edge, the larger the position Kelly sizing places. No edge = no trade.
📡 BTC Down: When imbalance ≥ 10, the market prices UP at ~50¢ but backtested probability is 92.9% → edge ≈ 42.9%. When imbalance < 10, DOWN probability is 77.8% vs ~50¢ market price → edge ≈ 27.8%. Minimum 5% required for live execution.
♾️ Sum Arb: Edge = the gap itself. If YES=0.47 and NO=0.49, gap = 1 − 0.96 = 4% — guaranteed profit regardless of outcome. No prediction needed.
⏱️ Near-Expiry: Edge = mispricing near resolution. A 90¢ YES that resolves to 100¢ yields a 10¢ guaranteed gain in seconds. The shorter the time to expiry, the tighter the edge.
🧬 Copy Alpha: Edge = the information advantage of the followed wallet. Top wallets on Polymarket have historically beaten market prices by 8–25%. The bot mirrors their entry the moment it detects their trade — before the market can fully reprice. Edge here is latency + selection quality: only wallets with proven win rates and high-volume positions are followed.
Can I lose money? What is the maximum loss per day?
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Yes, prediction market trading carries real risk of loss. The bot has layered built-in protections:
−2% daily loss limit — if the bot loses 2% of capital in one day, it stops trading for the rest of that day and resumes the next.
Tiered drawdown gates — position sizes are automatically reduced as portfolio drawdown grows: Kelly is scaled down at −3%, heavily reduced at −6%, and near-paused at −9%. Hard stop at −18% portfolio drawdown.
Max 3 trades/day — regardless of how many signals fire, the bot caps execution at 3 trades per day to avoid overtrading.
Kelly sizing — position size per trade is dynamically calculated based on edge, capped at a maximum of 6% of capital. With $100 deployed, worst-case single trade is ~$6. You are never risking more than your deployed USDC balance.
🧬 Copy Alpha runs as a separate process with its own kill-switch: −15% daily loss gate based on realized P&L from redeemed (resolved) positions — not cash balance changes. If Copy Alpha positions that resolved today sum to more than −15% of capital, trading stops for the rest of that UTC day and resumes automatically at midnight. Intraday unrealized losses on open positions do not count — only settled outcomes trigger the gate. This is intentionally aggressive to allow Copy Alpha's edge to play out, while still capping catastrophic days.
What is Paper Mode vs Live Mode?
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Paper Mode (dry-run) — the bot scans and logs signals but does not place real orders. Zero capital at risk. Use this to verify the bot is working and observe signal quality before committing real funds.
Live Mode — the bot places real orders on Polymarket using your USDC. Enabled by setting LIVE_EXECUTION_ENABLED=true in your config. We recommend running paper mode for at least 30 trades first.
Billing & Plans
Do you take a percentage of my profits?
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No performance fees — ever. You pay a flat monthly subscription. Every dollar of profit stays in your wallet. We make money from subscriptions, not from a cut of your trades.
Can I cancel my subscription anytime?
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Yes. Cancel anytime directly from your Whop dashboard — no questions, no lock-in. Your bot will continue running until the end of your billing period. After cancellation, your server instance is decommissioned and your credentials are deleted from our system.
What's the difference between the plans?
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All plans are identical in features — same 4 strategies, same live execution, same private dashboard, same Discord. The only difference is license duration. Longer commitment = bigger savings:
1 Month — $49 reg. $79 · Full access, no lock-in.
3 Months — $119 reg. $189 · ~$39.67/mo · save 19%.
6 Months — $199 reg. $319 · ~$33.17/mo · save 32% — Best Value.
1 Year — $349 reg. $549 · ~$29.08/mo · save 41%.
Promotional discount codes are published seasonally in the top bar of the landing page and in your dashboard plan card.
Is Polymarket available in my country?
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Polymarket is a decentralized platform accessible globally, but it is restricted for US residents. Check Polymarket's terms of service for the full list of restricted jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to ensure compliance with the laws of your country before using this service.